We present and compare two original approaches for technology assessment and foresight based on opposite paradigm: a management science approach (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making) versus a participatory approach (Prediction Market). These approaches are intended to support the management of a technology portfolio and the assessment of new technology by an IT organization. In order to explore the relevance of the research, we conducted several experiments in real environments. The results demonstrated that the rigor of management science and the participation of the Web 2.0 approach are complementary strengths for technology foresight. Furthermore, a framework has been established to compare the two approaches.

The full paper is available in the publications section

14.12.08 - Comparison of Multicriteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight (pdf)

R&D portfolio management is a critical task with which the majority of the large companies are confronted. Despite its wide implementation in companies there are no widely accepted and used methods to perform this task. Each company uses its own mix of various qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its goal. The objective of this thesis is to explore the adequacy and the design issues to use a prediction market for supporting the R&D portfolio management process. We chose prediction markets to perform this task since their aggregation mechanisms and information discovery process seems to solve most of the current issues of the R&D portfolio management process.

The full paper is available in the publications section

17.06.08 - Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios (pdf)

R&D portfolio management is a critical task with which the majority of the large companies are confronted. Despite its wide implementation in companies, there are no widely accepted and used methods to perform this task. Each company uses its own mix of various qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its goal. The objective of this thesis is to explore the adequacy to use a prediction market for supporting the R&D portfolio management process. We chose prediction markets to perform this task since their aggregation mechanisms and information discovery process seems to solve most of the current issues of the R&D portfolio management process.

The full paper is available in the publications section

06.06.08 - Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios (pdf)

The main objective of this research is to use prediction markets as negotiation agents, for supporting R&D portfolio management. To support this research, we iteratively designed, developed, operated and evaluated several prototypes. We present the weaknesses of the current techniques for managing R&D portfolio. We intend to demonstrate that prediction markets correct these weaknesses in R&D portfolio management. Furthermore, following a design science paradigm, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build-and-evaluate loops supported with a field study, which consisted in operating the prediction markets in different settings.

The full paper is available in the publications section

10.01.08 - Preparing a Negotiated R&D Portfolio with a Prediction Market (pdf)

The main objective of this research is to use prediction markets as negotiation agents, for supporting R&D portfolio management. To support this research, we iteratively designed, developed, operated and evaluated several prototypes. We present the weaknesses of the current techniques for managing R&D portfolio. We intend to demonstrate that prediction markets correct these weaknesses in R&D portfolio management. Furthermore, following a design science paradigm, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build-and-evaluate loops supported with a field study, which consisted in operating the prediction markets in different settings.

02.07.2007 - Preparing a negotiated R&D portfolio with a prediction market (pdf)

Définition, fonctionnement, utilisations dans l'enseignement de wikis et de blogs. Session interactive TurningPoint.

20.03.2007 - Web refreshing (pdf)

Présentation/Workshop sur les marchés de prédiction dans le cadre du cours eBusinesss du programme des Masters HEC.

25.01.2007 - Prediction Markets (pdf)

How to improve your application with SWITCHaai?

Présentation des marchés de prédiction et des solutions mises en places dans le cadre de MarMix@UNIL et MarMix@MICS pour la gestion et l'authentification des utilisateurs, dans le cadre de la journée SWITCHaai Info-Day 2006.

21.11.2006 - MarMix & SWITCHaai (pdf)

Introduction aux marchés de prédiction, aux mécanismes d'agrégation de l'information et présentation de quelques cas d'expériences internes dans les multinationales. Présentation du projet MarMix@MICS avec la plate-forme de marché, les interfaces web et SMS ainsi que le détail des contrats initiaux.

17.10.2006 - The MarMix Project ...forecasting the future (pdf)

Présentation de la problématique des prédictions et des avantages apportés par l'utilisation des marchés de prédictions. Illustrations et introduction à marmix.unil.ch.

01.05.2006 - Prediction markets as forecasting tools (pdf)

Définition, fonctionnement, utilisations dans l'enseignement.

29.03.2006 - Web Refreshing: Blog & WikiWiki (pdf)

La théorie des contraintes (TOC) a été développée au cours des vingt dernières années par le Dr Eliyahu Goldratt. Elle est basée sur la logique de cause à effet et a été dérivée des sciences exactes. Elle remet en question plusieurs principes  concernant la manière avec laquelle nous gérons les entreprises et les  organisations.

25.04.2005 - La théorie des contraintes (pdf)