Prediction Markets Supporting Technology Assessment

Corporate applications of prediction markets to support decision making

In this book, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we follow a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts.  We first show that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also develop a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we show that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we propose a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we show that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also propose a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises.  This book won Cédric Gaspoz the prestigious «Prix de Solidarité Confédérale 2011», awarded by the University of Lausanne, for the excellence of his doctoral thesis.

Book details

Publication Date Dec 11 2011
ISBN-10 1468054031
ISBN-13 9781468054033
Page Count 250
Edition US Trade Paper
Size 6.14" x 9.21"
Language English
Related Categories Business & Economics
  Decision-Making & Problem Solving